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Base Rate Neglect: Why Your "95% Accurate" Alert Is Wrong 99% of the Time
Summary
Google Flu Trends ran hot in 100 of 108 weeks. Your cost-anomaly alert has the same bug. Here's the Bayes math, and a pre-flight fix in Python.
CategoryAI Tutorials & Practice
TierOrdinary
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Indexed by AIQB
SourceDEV Community
AIQB record IDintel-9d0e2b461d8ca3cc606731d3