Concordance-Optimal Continuous Music Emotion Estimation: Variance Decomposition, Dual-Branch Temporal Fusion, and Conformal Prediction Intervals

Continuous music emotion recognition (MER) estimates how Arousal and Valence evolve within a song, yet the field's standard metric, pooled frame-level correlation, is dominated by between-song differences and cannot distinguish a model that tracks emotional dynamics from one that only ranks songs by their average level. We decompose annotation variance into between- and within-song components and show that mean squared error (MSE) targets the former, while windowed Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC = $r \cdot C_b$) targets the latter by penalising the variance compression MSE induces. A single weight $λ$ controls the trade-off: on 1,764 DEAM songs, raising $λ$ from 0 to 1 lowers pooled Arousal $r$ from 0.843 to 0.810 while raising mean within-song $r$ from 0.204 to 0.368. Building on this objective, we present MMAS (Multimodal Music Analysis System), an open-source model that predicts Arousal and Valence every 0.5 s from raw audio. It fuses frozen MERT-v1-95M embeddings with ten symbolic features from automatic transcription through a dual-branch temporal convolutional network with cross-modal attention. Because both branches are audio-derived, one model trains jointly on DEAM and PMEmo without domain conditioning. Under song-grouped 5-fold cross-validation (2,531 songs), pooled $r$ reaches 0.801/0.685 (Arousal/Valence) on DEAM and 0.742/0.746 on PMEmo. Against a ridge baseline on identical features, within-song Arousal $r$ roughly triples (0.344 vs. 0.125; $n = 353$ songs, Wilcoxon $p = 1.7 \times 10^{-21}$, $d = 0.56$). Complete transcription failure costs at most 0.04 pooled $r$. Split-conformal intervals attain 93.7% (Arousal) and 90.0% (Valence) marginal coverage at a 95% target, with the shortfall traced to within-song dependence. MMAS is released as a pip-installable package.