Reducing Logprob Without Causal Verification: Diagnosing SAE-Based PII Suppression in LLMs

SAE-based feature-level interventions to suppress PII leakage in LLMs are primarily evaluated by log-probability reduction. We show that this criterion cannot distinguish feature specific suppression from a magnitude artifact: a direction-agnostic effect of sufficiently large activation perturbations. Across 36 (model, layer, PII type) cases, we compare selected SAE feature interventions with coherencematched random direction controls using logprob and rank-aware metrics. While 17 cases (47%) appear successful under logprob-only evaluation, only 1 case (2.8%) passes our multimetric framework. The rest reveal two failure modes: random directions outperform selected features, and feature selection collapse across PII types. These results indicate that existing evaluations cannot verify whether interventions target causal pathways of PII leakage. A 9,000 run causal mediation feasibility study corroborates this: the verifier separates candidates reliably, but correlation-selected candidates rarely pass it. We therefore propose a new research mission for NLP: causally grounded PII suppression through circuit-level localization and causal mediation analysis.